Israel, Iran and the Nazi Gaza War Protesters

Last night Iran launched a massive air attack on Israel that was thwarted by the integrated Israeli air defenses along with help from the United States and regional allies. It was a credit to Israeli diplomacy that Jordan and Saudi Arabia aided Israel. Iran's dastardly attack will deservedly be met with a stern Israeli response, that hopefully will give the ayatollahs second thoughts about resuming their aggressive actions.

Meantime in the United States the Gaza war protestors were cheering Iran on with the slogans "hands off Iran" and "death to America." I guess they really love how well Iran treats its female and gay populations. Indeed, the Gaza War protesters have become the new Nazis in their unceasing efforts to shut down Israeli and Jewish artists and political figures at  numerous venues. Their behavior is very reminiscent of what the Nazis did in pre-Hitler Germany. Simply put we have to put and end to the hecklers' veto. I recently noted in a book review where the Nazis prevented the Berlin opening in December 1930 of the antiwar film "All Quiet on the Western Front." (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Frank McDonough's "The Weimar Years: Rise and Fall 1918-1933" )

In response Congress should immediately pass the supplemental appropriation for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan that has been held up by the Republican wrecker caucus in the House. (See: Shulmaven: Crunch Time for Ukraine, Israel and the Border ) Further voters should vote out of office the Hamas caucus within the Democratic Party that voted against supporting Israel's Iron Dome system and the sending of F-35 jets. I close to note that the Iranian attack is further evidence that we are living in a prewar period with its attendant dangers. ( Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today )

My Amazon Review of David Downing's "Union Station"

 Los Angeles-Berlin Axis

After years in Europe the Anglo-American journalist John Russell and his actor wife are now living in Los Angeles. This the eighth book of David Downing’s station series, with all of the prior stations being in Berlin from the late 1920’s to the late 1940’s.  (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of David Downing's "Wedding Station")Russell is partially employed by a German newspaper and Effie has become a sitcom star on American TV.  Although their life in LA is of wine and roses, Russell gets caught up in a political corruption scandal and Effie is now facing issues with HUAC and the McCarthyism of the era.

 

All of the activity takes place in 1953, the year of Stalin’s death, the subsequent struggle for power in the Soviet Union and the anti-Soviet riots in Berlin. Russell’s journalism takes him back to Berlin to investigate a candidate for Congress and Effie is there for a film festival. There is much intrigue in Berlin with several border crossings between east and west as Russell meets up with old friends. Russell fears that Soviet spy chief Beria is out to get him because he possesses compromising evidence on him that would be useful to his Kremlin opponents.

 

Along the way we get a sense of the very segregated Los Angeles of that era and the growing controversy of what is to happen to the Chavez Ravine tract the city has acquired. The Dodgers would move in later in the decade.

 

Downing tells a good story, but to me his dislike for America gets harder and harder to take, especially at the end. He seems to ignore that 1953 was a great year for middle-class white Americans and the Russell family was doing quite well. Downing also throws in a gratuitous hit on Israel, just for good measure. However, once you get over his political biases, he writes a very fast-paced historical novel

 Los Angeles-Berlin Axis (amazon.com)

My Amazon Review of Frank McDonough's "The Weimar Years: Rise and Fall 1918-1933"

 On the Road to Perdition

 

Third Reich historian Frank McDonough has written a year-by-year tick tock history of the Weimar Republic from its founding in 1918 to its demise on January 30, 1933. It is largely a political history where he sometimes goes into excruciating detail about the various cabinet changes over the years. His hero is Gustav Stresemann, prime minister and for many years foreign minister. He was perhaps Germany’s most influential politician from 1925 -1929 where he negotiated a détente with the West though the Locarno Treaty. Unfortunately, deliberate, or not there was not Locarno for the East where Stresemann had designs on the eastern territories taken away from Germany at Versailles.

 

McDonough rightly notes that the premature deaths of Foreign Minister Walter Rathenau by assassination in 1922 and the deaths by disease of President Friedrich Ebert and Stresemann severely eroded the talent of the regime. I have written elsewhere that Stresemann’s death in 1929 removed the last politician of stature who could have stood up to Hitler.

 

Weimar was plagued from the beginning by a flawed constitution and its lack of legitimacy among the German Right. The two fundamental flaws in the constitution were proportional representation that allowed for the smallest of parties to have a voice in Reichstag and Article 48 which enabled the president to rule by decree. That would haunt the government as the economic crisis of the 1930’s hit.

 

Further, it was this government that signed the Versailles Treaty that established Germany’s sole guilt in starting World War I and placed a severe reparations burden on the economy. It was a tough start and that along with crippling inflation almost brought the government down. However, as Robert Gerwath noted in “November 1918: The Great Revolution” Weimar survived and with Dawes Plan loans in 1925 actually prospered.

 

So why did Weimar collapse? To McDonough the faults lie with the lack of responsible parties on the Right and with President Paul von Hindenburg, the hero of World War I, who in the late 1920’s was supportive of the government, returned to his monarchal roots as a Prussian land baron. It was he, along with the intrigues of Franz von Papen and Kurt von Schleicher who brought down the hapless Heinrich Bruning government in 1932. Bruning’s government was imposed on the Reichstag by Hindenburg. He never had a parliamentary majority and with the lack of foreign currency reserves he was forced to impose a draconian austerity policy on an economy already in depression. To me Bruning did not have much of a choice. By the way, the best tick-tock on the end of Weimar is in Rudiger Barth’s and Hauke Friedrichs’ “The Last Winter of the Weimar Republic.”

 

Indeed, the decay was evident in December 1930 when Nazi goons disrupted the German premier of the anti-war film, “All Quiet on the Western Front.” So great were their disruptions that the film was banned a week after the failed premier. This has a familiar ring today in America where pro-Palestine mobs are canceling Jewish performers and Israeli officials.

 

 

Away from politics McDonough discusses the flowering of culture in art (abstract expressionism), architecture (Bauhaus), and film (Metropolis). Indeed, Berlin was second only to Hollywood in film production in the 1920’s. There was also the very free and licentious culture of Berlin’s nightclub scene. It was not for nothing that the recent German TV series was called “Babylon Berlin.” What McDonough does not mention is that this Avant Garde culture just might have turned off small city and rural Germany who overwhelmingly voted for Hitler in 1932.

 

However, my two primary concerns with McDonough’s otherwise excellent work is that he down plays economics. He should have taken seriously the works of Frederick Taylor’s “The Downfall of Money,” and Tobias Straumann’s “1931: Debt Crisis and the Rise of Hitler.” Simply put, Weimar was not up to the task. However, to his credit, McDonough does not that Hitler’s opposition to the Young Plan in 1930 made him respectable.

 

My second concern is that he failed to emphasize the long-standing division in the Left between the Socialists and the Communists. The split started during World War I and was exacerbated by the Socialist government with the support of the Army and the Free Corps in putting down the communist Spartacist Revolt in early 1920. Later in 1929 a different socialist government put down the “Bloody May” communist demonstration in 1929. McDonough doesn’t even mention this and with the communists calling the socialists “social fascists” it less of a surprise seeing them join forces with the Nazis in bringing down the Bruning government and in supporting a transit strike in Berlin in late 1932. Thus, part of the blame for the rise of Hitler has to fall on the disunity of the Left. As I have written previously the global impact of the Russian Revolution was to split the Left and harden the Right. It certainly played out in 1930 Germany.

 

With my concerns aside, McDonough’s book is important. I learned much from it and there are certainly lessons for today.

For the full amazon URL see: On the Road to Perdition (amazon.com)

My Amazon Review of Ian Buruma's "Spinoza: Freedom's Messiah"

Cancelled

At a time when cancel culture is running rampant in the West, it is useful to note that pernicious as it is, it is not new. In Dutch born Ian Buruma’s biography we find the 23-year-old Baruch Spinoza banned from his Sephardic synagogue in Amsterdam for his heretical ideas about G_d and the origins of the Bible. At the time Spinoza had yet to publish anything, but his ideas were so powerful that he threatened both the Jewish and Christian communities alike. Mind you this occurred in 1656 at the height of the Dutch enlightenment. Along the way we learn much about life in the milieu of the Dutch Republic.

Spinoza would go on to write a major book on the philosophy of Descartes and later several books on his own philosophy. He was part of a coterie of intellectuals that viewed him as a cult figure; a reputation that was enhanced by his ascetism and celibacy.

Spinoza’s god was nature itself. Thus, to study nature in the spirit of open scientific inquiry was the pathway to finding G_d. For espousing freedom of thought, Spinoza was cancelled. Although Spinoza did not believe in organized religion, he did believe that it served the purpose of inculcating the values of justice and charity within the broader population.

Buruma himself was cancelled as the editor of the New York Review of Books in 2018 because he didn’t bow down the #MeToo orthodoxy. In writing about Spinoza, Buruma has exacted a modicum of justice against the radical hyenas of the Left. 

For the full amazon Review see: Cancelled (amazon.com)

President Biden's State of the Union: Strong on Form Weak on Substance

Very reminiscent of Harry Truman's "give'em hell" 1948 campaign, President Biden came out swinging against his nameless predecessor and the Republican House of Representatives in his state of union address. ( See: Shulmaven: New Yorker Follows Shulmaven on Biden Election Strategy. ) He was confident, strong, and relaxed and at least for the time being silenced the "bedwetters" in the Democratic Party concerned about his re-election prospects. Further I wouldn't be surprised to see a meaningful bounce in his poll numbers in the coming week.

In terms of substance there was much to be desired. He opened his speech citing Franklin Roosevelt's 1941 state of the union (see below):

" In January 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt came to this chamber to speak to the nation. He said, “I address you at a moment unprecedented in the history of the Union.” Hitler was on the march. War was raging in Europe. President Roosevelt’s purpose was to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this was no ordinary moment. 

Freedom and democracy were under assault in the world. Tonight I come to the same chamber to address the nation. Now it is we who face an unprecedented moment in the history of the Union. And yes, my purpose tonight is to both wake up this Congress, and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either."

President Roosevelt's speech which has become to be known as his "Four Freedoms Speech" was delivered on January 6, 1941. Only a week before Roosevelt gave fireside chat where he declared the United States to be "an arsenal of democracy." The difference today is that President Biden is nowhere near declaring America as an arsenal of democracy. Indeed his proposed defense budget will show a meager 1% increase. Given the tone of his speech and the prewar environment we are now living in, he should have called for a massive increase in defense spending. (See: Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today) Thus his rhetoric is way ahead of his actions.

The other troubling parts of his speech is that he revived all of the old Democratic Party tropes about taxing the rich, going after big Pharma, and spending program upon spending program. He fails to understand that middle-of-the-road voters in 2020 thought they were voting for a Bill Clinton and instead got a Lyndon Johnson. This could come back to haunt Biden as his rhetoric could very well scare away the Nikki Haley voters he will need in November.

My Amazon Review of Jennifer Burns' "Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative"

 The Little Giant 

Standing at exactly five feet, Milton Friedman was short in stature, but very tall intellect. Stanford historian Jennifer Burns has written a very readable biography of one of the great intellectual giants of the 20^th century. From humble beginnings in Rahway, New Jersey we witness Milton Friedman scaling the heights of the economics profession as his once controversial ideas move from the fringes to the mainstream of thought that would ultimately have great effect on public policy.

 

In many respects, I am a child of his ideas. While as an undergraduate at Baruch College, I learned of the Friedman-Savage utility function, price theory from his workbook, the permanent income hypothesis, and the quantity theory of money through “A Monetary History of the United States.”  I also studied the works of his graduate students, in particular Gary Becker on human capital and David Meiselman on the term structure of interest rates. That was quite an economics education for an undergrad in the early 1960’s.

 

Friedman was blessed by having great mentors. At Rutgers and Columbia, he fell under the wing of Arthur Burns and at the University of Chicago he was fortunate to learn from Henry Simons and it certainly did not hurt to have Aaron Director, his wife Rose’s older brother in his corner. The University of Chicago was a hot house of ideas standing athwart the New Deal and Freidman was in the middle of it all. Much of this was discussed in George Tavlas’ “The Monetarists” which I previously reviewed.

 

There is much here that I did not know about Friedman. I knew he was involved in crafting payroll withholding at the Treasury Department during World War II, but I did not know he continuously represented the department at congressional hearings. Interestingly Burns makes a strong case that although Freidman took full credit for the permanent income hypothesis, it was really a joint effort of his wife, Rose and economists Dorothy Brady and Margaret Reid. Those three women had worked on family consumption patterns in the late 1930’s and the 1940’s. Perhaps most troubling was an episode in 1955 when his wife was raped in their Chicago home while Friedman was travelling in India. Initially he did not want to return home, but he had to be talked into it by Arthur Burns.

 

His conservative ideas brought him close to power as he advised Republicans Goldwater, Nixon, and Reagan. His conduit to Nixon and Reagan was Chicago dean and high government official, George Schultz. His fame brings him to Chile where his students were leading the charge to reform that nation’s economy. When he was there to advise the government, he turned a blind eye to the atrocities of the Pinochet dictatorship.

 

During the 1970’s heyday of monetarism, Friedman was the most famous economist in the world. His 1967 presidential address to the American Economic Association correctly outlined the thesis that there was no long run trade-off between unemployment and inflation proved to be correct in the stagflating 1970’s. However as financial deregulation changed the definition of money the crude MV=PY equation lost its effectiveness as a guidepost to the economy.

 

The world we live in today is very much the product of Friedman’s ideas characterized by Jennifer Burns as Chicago price theory. Those ideas include floating exchange rates, the volunteer army, the negative income tax, school vouchers and the deregulation of licensing requirements. This is the legacy that she writes so well about.

For the full Amazon URL see: The Little Giant (amazon.com)

 

 

New Yorker Follows Shulmaven on Biden Election Strategy.

On January 24th we briefly outlined a strategy for the Biden re-election campaign. (See: Shulmaven: Sleepwalking on the Road to Perdition ) 

"Further Biden has to get out of his sleepwalking mode and, if he is capable, he has to run an all-out campaign a la 1948 Harry Truman against the do nothing Congress. However, that "if" is a BFD, as Biden would say. To continue the Truman analogy, Biden should give an all-out speech calling for a big increase in the defense budget to deal with the axis of evil. Otherwise I fear that we would be sleepwalking on the road to perdition."

Today the New Yorker magazine followed us with a long article  by Evan Osnos. See the excerpt below from Politico.

BIDEN’S TRUMAN MOMENT: EVAN OSNOS ’ full New Yorker profile on Biden and his reelection mission is worth your time. But one moment stuck out to us: the parallel between the president’s pitch and that of HARRY TRUMAN .

“Biden’s opportunity is akin to the one that Harry Truman had in his 1948 campaign for reelection. Trailing in the polls, Truman railed against what he called a ‘Do Nothing Congress,’ which had failed to stop spiking prices and ameliorate a housing crisis. Much as Biden talks about the threat to freedoms worldwide, Truman spoke of a gathering Cold War, a grand mission that served to unify a fractious Democratic Party. He ultimately prevailed,” Osnos wrote.

“It was a matter of pulling together a coalition that was in even worse fragmentation,” historian SEAN WILENTZ told Osnos about Truman. “Truman did it by going to the American people, running against Congress, standing up on both the Cold War and civil rights. It’s possible that ’48 will prove a precursor to what we have now — if the Democrats take heed.”

That suggests that Biden could point, for example, to Republicans scuttling the grand bargain on immigration, and sidelining the national security supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other priorities in the process. It also suggests focusing on democracy and the rise of autocratic forces could give Biden an edge in his election narrative. (Source: Politico National Security, 3/4/2024)

The problem with the strategy is that Biden does not appear to have the energy to do the equivalent of a 100 city whistle stop tour.